Politics

Latest opinion polls UK – Election polling tracker – Which party is most likely to win a general election

By CornwallBlogger on October 5th, 2019 / Views
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Here on Newsroom24 we are now keeping an eye on all UK polls, updated daily this is the place to be to get the latest information on our election poll tracker with the latest UK opinion polls.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Area Sample
size
Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru UKIP Green Change UK Brexit Other Lead
Opinium/The Observer 3–4 Oct GB 2,006 38% 23% 15% 5% 0% 1% 4% 0% 12% 0% 15%

The latest results are now showing a 15% lead for the Conservative party with the release of the new Opinium / Observer poll.

06 Oct 2019

06 Oct 2019

Recently we have seen the Liberal Democrats overtake Labour, putting them into 3rd place, as you know things change daily so how long will this last? Well it all relies on complicated factors, policy, trust, popularity of party leaders and much more.

As you can see, the main 2 parties Labour and Conservatives have had their difficulties with potential votes going to the new Brexit party and the established Liberal Democrats, each party have a clear leave or remain in the EU policy. In mid June there was a time where the polls were suggesting a 4 party system would be likely however since then there has been a new party leader for the Conservatives (Boris Johnson) with a stronger tone on leaving the EU.

Labour, who don’t seem to have a clear line on the EU are still suffering – Loosing votes to the Lib Dems still, over time eroding their % share of the vote. Whereas the Brexit party are losing share to the Conservative and Unionist party. UKIP has all but disappeared along with Change UK.

Below we have the latest results from all UK opinion polls. Updated daily you can see the change after any events in politics.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Area Sample
size
Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru UKIP Green Change UK Brexit Other Lead
YouGov/The Times 30 Sep–1 Oct GB 1,623 34% 21% 23% 3% 1% 0% 5% 0% 12% 1% 11%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 26–27 Sep GB 1,623 33% 22% 21% 4% 1% 0% 5% 0% 13% 1% 11%
Opinium/The Observer 25–27 Sep GB 2,007 36% 24% 20% 5% 1% 0% 2% 0% 11% 1% 12%
Survation/Daily Mail 25 Sep UK 1,011 27% 24% 22% 4% 3% 16% 4% 3%
YouGov/The Times 24–25 Sep GB 1,635 33% 22% 22% 3% 1% 0% 6% 0% 14% 0% 11%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 24 Sep GB 1,027 27% 27% 20% 4% 1% 17% 4% Tie
YouGov/People’s Vote 19–20 Sep GB 2,006 30% 23% 22% 4% 0% 0% 5% 0% 14% 1% 7%
Opinium/The Observer 19–20 Sep GB 2,004 37% 22% 17% 4% 1% 2% 4% 0% 12% 0% 15%
ComRes/Britain Elects 18–19 Sep GB 2,050 29% 27% 20% 4% 0% 0% 4% 1% 13% 0% 2%
YouGov/The Times 17–18 Sep GB 1,608 32% 21% 23% 4% 1% 1% 4% 0% 14% 2% 9%
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 13–16 Sep GB 1,006 33% 24% 23% 4% 0% 4% 0% 10% 1% 9%
Opinium/The Observer 11–13 Sep GB 2,002 37% 25% 16% 4% 1% 1% 2% 0% 13% 0% 12%
ComRes/Sunday Express 11–12 Sep GB 2,057 28% 27% 20% 4% 1% 1% 5% 1% 13% 0% 1%
YouGov/The Times 9–10 Sep GB 1,676 32% 23% 19% 4% 0% 0% 7% 0% 14% 1% 9%
Kantar 5–9 Sep GB 1,144 38% 24% 20% 4% 1% 1% 3% 1% 7% 1% 14%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 6–8 Sep GB 2,016 30% 29% 17% 3% 1% 1% 4% 0% 13% 2% 1%
Deltapoll/The Sun on Sunday 5–7 Sep GB 2,049 31% 28% 17% 5% 1% 1% 4% 13% 0% 3%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 5–6 Sep GB 1,676 35% 21% 19% 4% 0% 1% 7% 0% 12% 1% 14%
Panelbase 5–6 Sep GB 1,013 31% 28% 19% 3% 0% 0% 2% 0% 15% 0% 3%
Survation/Daily Mail 5–6 Sep UK 1,006 29% 24% 18% 4% 1% 3% 17% 5% 5%
ComRes/Britain Elects 4–6 Sep GB 2,009 31% 27% 20% 3% 1% 1% 3% 13% 1% 4%
Opinium/The Observer 4–6 Sep GB 2,009 35% 25% 17% 5% 0% 1% 3% 0% 13% 1% 10%
BMG/The Independent 3–6 Sep GB 1,504 31% 27% 19% 3% 0% 1% 6% 0% 13% 0% 4%
Hanbury Strategy 3–4 Sep GB 995 33% 26% 17% 4% 1% 3% 14% 2% 7%[a]
YouGov/The Times 2–3 Sep GB 1,639 35% 25% 16% 4% 1% 1% 7% 0% 11% 0% 10%
ICM Research/Represent Us 30 Aug–3 Sep GB 2,041 37% 30% 16% 3% 1% 1% 4% 9% 1% 7%
Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday 29–31 Aug GB 2,028 35% 24% 18% 4% 1% 0% 4% 1% 14% 0% 11%
Survation/Daily Mail 29–30 Aug UK 1,020 31% 24% 21% 4% 1% 3% 14% 3% 7%
YouGov 28–29 Aug GB 1,867 33% 22% 21% 4% 1% 0% 7% 0% 12% 1% 11%
YouGov/The Times 27–28 Aug GB 2,006 34% 22% 17% 4% 1% 1% 8% 0% 13% 1% 12%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 22–23 Aug GB 2,019 33% 21% 19% 4% 1% 0% 7% 0% 14% 1% 12%
Opinium/The Observer 21–23 Aug GB 2,005 32% 26% 15% 5% 1% 1% 4% 0% 16% 1% 6%
YouGov/The Times 20–21 Aug GB 1,687 32% 22% 20% 4% 1% 0% 7% 0% 12% 2% 10%
Kantar 15–19 Aug GB 1,133 42% 28% 15% 5% 0% 0% 3% 1% 5% 1% 14%
YouGov/The Times 13–14 Aug GB 1,625 30% 21% 20% 4% 1% 1% 8% 0% 14% 2% 9%
BMG/The Independent 7–12 Aug GB 1,515 31% 25% 19% 3% 1% 1% 6% 0% 12% 2% 6%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 9–11 Aug GB 2,011 31% 27% 16% 3% 0% 1% 4% 0% 16% 2% 4%
Survation 6–11 Aug UK 2,040 28% 24% 21% 4% 0% 3% 15% 4% 4%
10 Aug Richard Braine becomes leader of UKIP[7]
Opinium/The Observer 8–9 Aug GB 2,003 31% 28% 13% 4% 1% 1% 5% 0% 16% 0% 3%
YouGov/The Times 5–6 Aug GB 1,628 31% 22% 21% 4% 0% 0% 7% 0% 14% 1% 9%
1 Aug Brecon and Radnorshire by-election[8]
YouGov/The Times 29–30 Jul GB 2,066 32% 22% 19% 4% 1% 0% 8% 0% 13% 1% 10%
Ipsos MORI 26–30 Jul GB 1,007 34% 24% 20% 4% 1% 1% 6% 0% 9% 1% 10%
ComRes/Britain Elects 26–28 Jul GB 2,004 29% 30% 16% 3% 1% 1% 5% 0% 15% 2% 1%
Deltapoll/The Mail on Sunday 25–27 Jul GB 2,001 30% 25% 18% 4% 1% 1% 4% 2% 14% 1% 5%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 25–26 Jul GB 1,697 31% 21% 20% 5% 1% 0% 8% 0% 13% 1% 10%
Opinium/The Observer 24–26 Jul GB 2,006 30% 28% 16% 5% 1% 1% 5% 0% 15% 1% 2%
ComRes/Sunday Express 24–25 Jul GB 2,029 28% 27% 19% 3% 1% 1% 4% 0% 16% 0% 1%
YouGov/The Times 23–24 Jul GB 1,715 25% 19% 23% 4% 1% 1% 9% 0% 17% 1% 2%
23 Jul Boris Johnson becomes leader of the Conservative Party, and Prime Minister the next day
22 Jul Jo Swinson becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats[9]

Below wh have the 2015 and 2017 election results in percentage and the corresponding number of seats in parliament.

According to YouGov polling Labour are now in 3rd place on 01 Oct 2019. Remember things change, come back for regular updates.

Lib dems overtake Labour

Lib dems overtake Labour

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